AI Impact on Australian Employment (2024-2029)
Introduction
The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into various industries is poised to revolutionise the Australian workforce, creating both challenges and opportunities. This article provides a detailed analysis of the potential impacts of AI on employment from 2024 to 2029, focusing on key industries such as financial services, retail, manufacturing, healthcare, education and professional services. By analysing baseline workforce data and leveraging insights from leading research organisations, we aim to shed light on the scale of job displacement and creation, as well as the broader implications for policy and workforce planning. As automation accelerates, understanding these dynamics is crucial for navigating the future of work in Australia.
Analysis Based on Official Australian Employment Data and Research
Baseline Data (February 2024)
Current Workforce Statistics (ABS Labour Force Data, Feb 2024):
Total employed persons: 14.2 million
Current unemployment rate: 3.7%
Total unemployed persons: ~548,000
Key Industry Employment (ABS Detailed Labour Force):
Financial Services: 488,000
Retail Trade: 1,287,000
Manufacturing: 917,000
Transport, Postal and Warehousing: 733,000
Healthcare and Social Assistance: 2,048,000
Education and Training: 1,158,000
Professional Services: 1,442,000
Estimated Impact by Industry
Financial Services and Insurance
Base employment: 488,000
Estimated impact (based on ACS Digital Pulse 2023):
12-15% potential automation over 5 years
Estimated job displacement: 58,560 - 73,200
Retail Trade
Base employment: 1,287,000
Estimated impact (based on Productivity Commission Digital Technology report):
18-22% potential automation over 5 years
Estimated job displacement: 231,660 - 283,140
Manufacturing
Base employment: 917,000
Estimated impact (based on AI Group Industry 4.0 research):
15-20% potential automation over 5 years
Estimated job displacement: 137,550 - 183,400
Transport and Logistics
Base employment: 733,000
Estimated impact (based on CSIRO Transport automation outlook):
10-15% potential automation over 5 years
Estimated job displacement: 73,300 - 109,950
Healthcare
Base employment: 2,048,000
Estimated impact (based on Digital Health CRC projections):
5-8% potential automation over 5 years
Estimated job displacement: 102,400 - 163,840
Education
Base employment: 1,158,000
Estimated impact (based on Department of Education research):
4-6% potential automation over 5 years
Estimated job displacement: 46,320 - 69,480
Professional Services
Base employment: 1,442,000
Estimated impact (based on Business Council of Australia Future-Proof report):
8-12% potential automation over 5 years
Estimated job displacement: 115,360 - 173,040
Total Estimated Job Displacement
Range: 765,150 - 1,056,050 over 5 years
Job Creation Estimates
Based on ACS Digital Pulse and Jobs and Skills Australia forecasts:
Technology Professionals: 153,000
Data Analytics: 87,000
Cybersecurity: 51,000
Digital Transformation Roles: 42,000
AI/ML Specialists: 38,000
Digital Health Roles: 29,000
Advanced Manufacturing: 25,000
Total New Jobs: Approximately 425,000
Net Impact
Net job displacement: 340,150 - 631,050
Potential unemployment rate increase: 2.4% - 4.4%
Adjusted unemployment rate projection: 6.1% - 8.1%
Key Considerations
These estimates assume current technology adoption rates and no significant policy interventions
Job displacement will occur gradually over the 5-year period
New job creation may lag behind job displacement
Regional impacts will vary significantly
Actual impact will depend heavily on government policy and business investment in reskilling
Conclusion
The anticipated impact of AI on Australian employment over the next five years underscores the urgency of proactive workforce planning. While automation poses a significant risk of job displacement in industries like retail, manufacturing and professional services, it also presents opportunities for job creation in technology and digital health. Policymakers, businesses and educational institutions must collaborate to address these challenges, prioritising investment in reskilling and regional support to ensure a just transition. By embracing innovation while safeguarding employment, Australia can turn this potential disruption into a pathway for economic growth and resilience.
References
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2024). Labour Force, Australia.
Australian Computer Society (2023). Digital Pulse.
Productivity Commission (2023). Digital Technology and the Future of Work.
AI Group (2023). Industry 4.0 Advanced Manufacturing Research.
CSIRO/Data61 (2023). AI Roadmap for Australia.
Business Council of Australia (2023). Future-Proof: Preparing for the Workforce of Tomorrow.
Digital Health CRC (2023). Projections on the Impact of Technology in Healthcare.
Department of Education (2023). Future of Education and Training Report.
Jobs and Skills Australia (2023). Employment Projections to 2029.